cmsharpe.com

Cheryl's Spot on the Web - since September 1, 1997
Now at cmsharpe.com

Severe Weather Outlook

Time

Date Time

SPC Links

The Outlooks

NOTE - (Updated again June 9, 2019) - SPC file access from this page appears not to be possible anymore. Expect a "no data"-type response from this page until I can find another way to get the information...if I can find another way.

(Updated December 6, 2018) - Please note that there are frequent problems when either (1) the threat lines have short breaks in them or (2) there is more than one polygon of the same outlook type. A new Typescript version is under development that should address these issues, plus (hopefully) speed up the rendering of this page.

Location Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Not
Avbl
Not
Avbl
Not
Avbl
Norman OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
Bethany OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
SW Knox Co TXNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NW Harper Co OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NE Kay Co OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
SE Bryan Co OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
Alpena MINONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
Canton ILNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%
NONE
Svr Prob: 0%

Legend

Example

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Risk Category
Probability of Tornadoes
Probability of Hail
Probability of Wind
Risk Category
Probability
Risk Category
Probability

"Probability" refers to the approximate probability of severe weather within 25 miles of the point.

Risk Categories

ItemExampleDescription
No thunderstorms expectedNONEThe risk of thunderstorms at the given point is very low or zero.
Chance of thunderstormsTSTMThunderstorms possible, but organized severe storms are unlikely.
Marginal RiskMRGL"Marginal Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Slight RiskSLGT"Slight Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Enhanced RiskENH"Enhanced Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Moderate RiskMDT"Moderate Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
High RiskHIGH"High Risk" of severe storms at the given point.

Probabilities

Probabilities that are used for hail and wind: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Tornado probabilities include the above, plus 2% and 10%.
Day 2 probabilities are: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Day 3 probabilities are: 5%, 15%, 30%, and 45%.

No Severe Weather Expected

ItemExampleDescription
<2% tornado riskTORNADO: 0%Less than 2% chance of tornado within 25 mi.
<5% hail riskHAIL: 0%Less than 5% chance of severe hail (¾-inch or larger) within 25 mi.
<5% wind riskWIND: 0%Less than 5% chance of severe wind (50 kt/58 mph or more) within 25 mi.

Severe Weather Expected

ItemExampleDescription
≥2% tornado riskTORNADO: 5%2% chance or greater of tornado within 25 mi.
≥5% hail riskHAIL: 15%5% chance or greater of severe hail within 25 mi.
≥5% wind riskWIND: 15%5% chance or greater of severe wind within 25 mi.

Significant Severe Weather Expected

ItemExampleDescription
"Significant" tornado riskTORNADO: 15%10% chance or greater of F2 to F5 tornado within 25 mi.
"Significant" hail riskHAIL: 45%10% chance or greater of 2-inch diameter (or larger) hail within 25 mi.
"Significant" wind riskWIND: 45%10% chance or greater of 65 knot (75 mph) (or stronger) wind within 25 mi.

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Latest update: June 9, 2019