Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Links

Update times are all UTC:

Day 1—updated 06:00, 13:00, 16:30, 20:00, 01:00 (next UTC day)
Day 2—updated 06:00 (during DST) or 07:00 (during Standard Time) and 17:30
Day 3— updated 07:30 (during DST) or 08:30 (during Standard Time) and 19:30
Days 4-8—updated 09:00 (during DST) or 10:00 (during Standard Time)
Source

The Outlooks

Notes

The percentages shown are the next-lower forecastable probabilities of severe weather (of the specified kind(s)) within 25 miles (about 40 km) of the given location. See the Legend for more details.

The program that creates this table reads multiple online files for its information. If a file download fails, the missing information should show up as "N/A", or the table will fail to update at all. Ordinarily, this problem should resolve the next time the program creates the table (currently a five-minute interval).

New!—Days 4 through 8 in the table! The Day 4-8 portion of the table uses "NONE" for "Potential Too Low" and "Predictability Too Low", "SLGT" for 15% probability, and "ENH" for 30% probability of severe weather, since those categories are the closest to the corresponding percentages.

Also, the selection of locations is a list of places that are (or were) places of particular importance to me, and coincidentally cover quite a bit of the geography of the contiguous United States.

The Table

Updated: 2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Day 1 issuance time: 14/19:51 UTC

Day 2 issuance time: 14/17:26 UTC

Day 3 issuance time: 14/19:07 UTC

Day 4 issuance time: 14/08:25 UTC

Day 5 issuance time: 14/08:25 UTC

Day 6 issuance time: 14/08:25 UTC

Day 7 issuance time: 14/08:25 UTC

Day 8 issuance time: 14/08:25 UTC

Location

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

Day 5

Day 6

Day 7

Day 8

Wed
14

Thu
15

Fri
16

Sat
17

Sun
18

Mon
19

Tue
20

Wed
21

Ellsworth ME

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Oklahoma City OK

SLGT

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 15%

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Norman OK

SLGT

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 15%

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Alpena MI

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

TSTM

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Moline IL

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Ceres CA

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Bellevue NE

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Scott AFB IL

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

MRGL

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 5%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Canton IL

NONE

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

TSTM

TORNADO: 0%

HAIL: 0%

WIND: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

NONE

Svr prob: 0%

Legend

Example

Day 1

Day 2

Days 3-8

Risk Category

Probability of Tornadoes

Probability of Hail

Probability of Wind

Risk Category

Probability of Tornadoes

Probability of Hail

Probability of Wind

Risk Category

Probability

"Probability" refers to the approximate probability of severe weather within 25 miles (about 40 km) of the point.

Risk Categories

Item	Example	Description
No thunderstorms expected	NONE	The risk of thunderstorms at the given point is very low or zero.
Chance of thunderstorms	TSTM	Thunderstorms possible, but organized severe storms are unlikely.
Marginal Risk	MRGL	"Marginal Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Slight Risk	SLGT	"Slight Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Enhanced Risk	ENH	"Enhanced Slight Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Moderate Risk	MDT	"Moderate Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
High Risk	HIGH	"High Risk" of severe storms at the given point.

Probabilities

Probabilities that are used for hail: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Probabilities that are used for wind: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, 65%, 75%, and 90%.
Tornado probabilities: 2%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%.
Day 3 probabilities are: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Days 4-8 probabilities are: 15% and 30%.

No Severe Weather Expected

Item	Example	Description
<2% tornado risk	TORNADO: 0%	Less than 2% chance of tornado within 25 mi.
<5% hail risk	HAIL: 0%	Less than 5% chance of severe hail (1-inch [~25 mm] or larger) within 25 mi.
<5% wind risk	WIND: 0%	Less than 5% chance of severe wind (58 mph [~93 km/h] or more) within 25 mi.
<5% (or <15%) severe risk	Svr prob: 0%	Less than 5% (or 15% Days 4-8) chance of severe weather (all kinds) within 25 mi.

Severe Weather Expected

Item	Example	Description
≥2% tornado risk	TORNADO: 5%	2% chance or greater of tornado within 25 mi.
≥5% hail risk	HAIL: 15%	5% chance or greater of severe hail within 25 mi.
≥5% wind risk	WIND: 15%	5% chance or greater of severe wind within 25 mi.
≥5% (or ≥15%) severe risk	Svr prob: 15%	5% (15% Days 4-8) chance or greater of severe weather within 25 mi.

Conditional Intensity Groups

CIG1 Severe Weather Expected

Item	Example	Description
"CIG1" tornado risk	TORNADO: 15%	Expected maximum intensity EF2
"CIG1" hail risk	HAIL: 45%	2.0" – 3.5" hail (tennis ball to baseball)
"CIG1" wind risk	WIND: 45%	All storm modes, peak gusts 65+ knot
"CIG1" severe weather risk	Svr prob: 30%	At least one of the above conditions expected on Day 3

CIG2 Severe Weather Expected

Item	Example	Description
"CIG2" tornado risk	TORNADO: 15%	Expected maximum intensity EF3
"CIG2" hail risk	HAIL: 45%	>3.5" hail (softball and larger)
"CIG2" wind risk	WIND: 45%	Bow echo and derecho possible
"CIG2" severe weather risk	Svr prob: 30%	At least one of the above conditions expected on Day 3

CIG3 Severe Weather Expected

Item	Example	Description
"CIG3" tornado risk	TORNADO: 15%	Expected maximum intensity EF4
"CIG3" wind risk	WIND: 45%	High-end derecho (usually ongoing)

Latest update: March 31, 2026