cmsharpe.com

Cheryl's Spot on the Web - since September 1, 1997
Now at cmsharpe.com

Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Links

Update times are all UTC:

The Outlooks

Notes

(June 4, 2024) - NOTICE: This page may be off-line (meaning no updates to the table below) at times during the first half or so of June, or possibly in July. The computer that creates the table is due for an operating system upgrade, which will be installed at a different residence, and will likely be off-line for several hours at a time as it is being transported and upgraded.

(May 2, 2024) - The original PHP program that created this table for several years, then became unmaintainable (see the now-obsolete notes below), has been replaced with a Rust program that runs on a timer on a "local" computer, and its output is then synced with this website. As of May 2, 2024, that program is run every 5 minutes, but may be run less-frequently in the near future.

Also, the selection of locations is a list of places that are (or were) places of particular importance to me, and coincidentally cover quite a bit of the geography of the contiguous United States. To see the latitude and longitude used for each site, hover the cursor over the location name (may not work on mobile devices).

The "issuance/valid time", below, is the standard issuance time for the actual forecast. For example, if the Day 2 outlook is listed as "22/06:00 UTC", it means that the Day 2 outlook shown is "valid" at 06:00 UTC on the 22nd, although the outlook is in effect from 12:00 UTC on the 23rd through 12:00 UTC on the 24th.

Old Notes

(OBSOLETE) NOTE - (Updated again June 9, 2019) - SPC file access from this page appears not to be possible anymore. Expect a "no data"-type response from this page until I can find another way to get the information...if I can find another way.

(OBSOLETE) (Updated December 6, 2018) - Please note that there are frequent problems when either (1) the threat lines have short breaks in them or (2) there is more than one polygon of the same outlook type. A new Typescript version is under development that should address these issues, plus (hopefully) speed up the rendering of this page.

The Table

Updated: 2024-06-14 19:25 UTC

Day 1 issuance/valid time: 14/16:30 UTC

Day 2 issuance/valid time: 14/17:30 UTC

Day 3 issuance/valid time: 14/07:30 UTC

Location Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Fri
14
Sat
15
Sun
16
Ellsworth MEMRGL
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
NONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr prob: 0%
Oklahoma City OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
TSTM
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr prob: 0%
Norman OKNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr prob: 0%
Alpena MINONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
TSTM
Svr prob: 0%
Moline ILNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
TSTM
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
TSTM
Svr prob: 0%
Ceres CANONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr prob: 0%
Bellevue NETSTM
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
SLGT
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
TSTM
Svr prob: 0%
Scott AFB ILNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr prob: 0%
Canton ILNONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
TORNADO: 0%
HAIL: 0%
WIND: 0%
NONE
Svr prob: 0%

Legend

Example

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Risk Category
Probability of Tornadoes
Probability of Hail
Probability of Wind
Risk Category
Probability of Tornadoes
Probability of Hail
Probability of Wind
Risk Category
Probability

"Probability" refers to the approximate probability of severe weather within 25 miles (about 40 km) of the point.

Risk Categories

ItemExampleDescription
No thunderstorms expectedNONEThe risk of thunderstorms at the given point is very low or zero.
Chance of thunderstormsTSTMThunderstorms possible, but organized severe storms are unlikely.
Marginal RiskMRGL"Marginal Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Slight RiskSLGT"Slight Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Enhanced RiskENH"Enhanced Slight Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
Moderate RiskMDT"Moderate Risk" of severe storms at the given point.
High RiskHIGH"High Risk" of severe storms at the given point.

Probabilities

Probabilities that are used for hail and wind: 5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, and 60%.
Tornado probabilities include the above, plus 2% and 10%.
Day 3 probabilities are: 5%, 15%, 30%, and 45%.

No Severe Weather Expected

ItemExampleDescription
<2% tornado riskTORNADO: 0%Less than 2% chance of tornado within 25 mi.
<5% hail riskHAIL: 0%Less than 5% chance of severe hail (1-inch [~25 mm] or larger) within 25 mi.
<5% wind riskWIND: 0%Less than 5% chance of severe wind (58 mph [~93 km/h] or more) within 25 mi.
<5% severe riskSvr prob: 0%Less than 5% chance of severe weather (all kinds) within 25 mi.

Severe Weather Expected

ItemExampleDescription
≥2% tornado riskTORNADO: 5%2% chance or greater of tornado within 25 mi.
≥5% hail riskHAIL: 15%5% chance or greater of severe hail within 25 mi.
≥5% wind riskWIND: 15%5% chance or greater of severe wind within 25 mi.
≥5% severe riskSvr prob: 15%5% chance or greater of severe weather within 25 mi.

Significant Severe Weather Expected

ItemExampleDescription
"Significant" tornado riskTORNADO: 15%10% chance or greater of F2 to F5 tornado within 25 mi.
"Significant" hail riskHAIL: 45%10% chance or greater of 2-inch (~51 mm) diameter (or larger) hail within 25 mi.
"Significant" wind riskWIND: 45%10% chance or greater of 75 mph (~120 km/h) wind, or stronger, within 25 mi.
"Significant" severe weather riskSvr prob: 30%15% chance of greater of one or more of the above conditions within 25 mi.

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Latest update: June 4, 2024